Analysis by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business indicates that Indiana had the smallest annual population increase in nearly a decade.

Indiana added 19,505 residents in 2022 to reach a total population of 6.83 million, according to the latest population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the smallest annual increase since 2015 and was only the second time in 35 years that the state added fewer than 20,000 residents in a year.

For the second consecutive year, a low rate of natural population increase was the primary driver of Indiana’s slow growth.

 “Due largely to the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of deaths in Indiana remained exceptionally high in 2022,” said Matt Kinghorn, senior demographer at the Indiana Business Research Center. “Add in another year with relatively low fertility rates, and there were only 1,024 more births than deaths in the state last year.

Meanwhile, 24 states had a natural decrease in 2022, meaning deaths outnumbered births.

Kinghorn said it is important to keep in mind that 2022 population estimates cover the period from July 2021 to June 2022. Data from the National Center for Health Statistics show that Indiana averaged roughly 1,450 deaths involving COVID-19 per month between September 2021 and February 2022. For the rest of 2022, however, the state averaged approximately 250 monthly COVID-related deaths.

This shift suggests that Indiana will have an improved rate of natural increase for calendar year 2022.

With the state’s natural increase so low, Indiana’s population gains were fueled almost entirely by a strong net in-migration of more than 20,720 residents in 2022.

Around Indiana

Many of Indiana’s fastest-growing counties are suburban communities in the Indianapolis metro area. Hamilton County set the pace for growth with a 2.1% population gain in 2022, while Hendricks (1.7%), Boone (1.6%) and Hancock (1.5%) ranked among the top six counties.

The fastest-growing counties outside the Indianapolis area were in southeast Indiana. Ohio County posted the state’s second-fastest growth rate at 2.0%, while its rural neighbor Switzerland County placed fourth with a 1.6% increase.

In a notable shift, five rural counties were among Indiana’s 16 fastest-growing ones in 2022. The state’s 23 rural counties — counties that are not designated as being part of either a metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget — combined for a 0.1% increase last year. Between 2010 and 2020, by contrast, only five rural counties posted a population gain at all, and rural Indiana declined by 2.2% as a whole. In terms of the largest numeric gains, Hamilton County once again led the way in 2022 by adding 7,591 residents — a level of growth more than twice as large as runner-up Hendricks County’s increase of 2,979 residents. Other top gainers included Allen (2,337), Clark (1,390) and Johnson (1,364) counties.

In all, 55 of Indiana’s 92 counties posted a population gain in 2022.

For the second straight year, Marion County had the state’s largest population decline with a loss of roughly 2,180 residents — a 0.2% slide.

LaPorte County had the state’s second-largest decline at 811 residents, followed by Vandenburgh (-523 residents), Monroe (-390) and Miami (-358) counties. As for the pace of decline, Blackford, Miami and Orange counties had the state’s sharpest drops last year, with each falling by roughly 1%.

Drivers of change in Indiana counties

In all, 69 Indiana counties — or 75% of all counties in the state — had a natural population decrease in 2022. In absolute numbers, Lake County fared worst in this measure, with 644 more deaths than births last year. Delaware, Madison, Howard, LaPorte and Grant counties also had a natural decrease of 300 residents or greater in 2022.

Of the 69 counties with a natural decrease, 37 had a net in-migration that was strong enough to overcome these losses and result in an overall population gain.

Marion County had the state’s largest natural increase at 3,736 residents, followed by Hamilton (1,299), Allen (1,190) and Elkhart (818) counties.

Meanwhile, 67 of the state’s 92 counties posted a net in-migration of residents in 2022. Hamilton and Hendricks counties in the Indy area topped this list, followed by Clark County in the Louisville metro area. Allen and Lake counties rounded out the top five for net inflow of residents.

Indiana’s metropolitan areas

“Population growth in Indiana continues to be driven largely by a handful of metropolitan areas,” Kinghorn said. “Foremost among these is the 11-county Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson metro area, which added 13,115 residents last year, accounting for 67% of Indiana’s net growth in 2022.

Compared to large metro-area peers in neighboring states, the Indy area’s growth rate of 0.6% trailed only Columbus, Ohio (0.7%). Meanwhile, growth rates in the Cincinnati (0.2%), Louisville (0.0%), Detroit (-0.5%), Cleveland (-0.5%) and Chicago (-0.8%) areas lagged well behind.

The Columbus, Indiana, area led the state’s metros with a growth rate of 1% to reach a total population of 83,540 residents.

At the other end of the spectrum, seven of Indiana’s 12 metro areas lost population in 2022, with Michigan City-LaPorte, Bloomington and Terre Haute showing the largest rates of decline.